Campaign Promises and White House Possibilities
80th Congress v 118th Congress
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The 2024 presidential election is in 238 days.
Americans didn’t used to live like this. There was a time when it was considered unseemly for presidential candidates to praise themselves, make direct appeals to voters, feign interest in a county fair, or visit, let alone linger in, a town they’d never see outside of an election year. That fell to surrogates.
So how did we end up with the constant campaign battery we have now? In 1881, William Graham Sumner, the first professor of sociology, blamed us, writing that the presidency is “moulded by the tastes and faiths of the people.”
But Sumner’s argument fails to account for widespread cynicism toward the office, which makes an election year feel like a trial. That feeling is amplified in 2024 because one candidate is literally on trial for a host of serious charges in more than one state.
On Monday, I spoke to Kevin Kruse, a professor of history at Princeton, about the gulf between campaign promises and White House possibilities–or at least, that was my intention.
The exact date of the State of the Union wasn’t public when I scheduled the fifth stop on the “How Should a President Be” tour, an Instagram Live, on March 5th. That was just good luck, and so was the way our conversation evolved. We touched on history, of course, but we kept returning to the present. What can President Biden communicate to the electorate about his presidency?* What would we have wanted to know four years ago? Which promises has he kept, which has he broken, and where has he surprised and disappointed us?**
Most of all, we hoped that Biden would look to Harry Truman’s reelection campaign for inspiration. No one was that excited about Truman, either, who had ascended to the presidency by FDR’s death. By the end of his first term, he was polling in the 30s. The 80th Congress, dominated by Republicans, were about as productive as their modern heirs, which is to say, they were big on drama and thin on legislation–but they had a better name: The Do-Nothing Congress.
That’s what Truman called them when, like MAGA Republicans, they failed to pass laws they purportedly supported. He could only do so much, he warned voters, as the people’s president if “if same men would be the bosses, the same as those who passed the Taft-Hartley Act, and passed the rich man's tax bill, and took Social Security away from a million workers.” He ran against a party, not a candidate.
The GOP is no longer the party of Ronald Reagan, but disgraced former president Donald Trump isn’t the problem–he’s a symptom of the problem. The Republican party has been headed in this direction since Newt Gingrich.
But compared to the Do-Nothing Republicans, who actually passed legislation, MAGA Republicans are like violent sleepwalkers.
During out hourlong conversation, Kevin and I agreed Biden needed to do two things last Tuesday: Call out Congress for their hypocrisy and thin legislation–and do so forcefully. I wasn’t sure he had it in him, but 24 hours later, he spoke with the authority of an incumbent who has kept his promises, turning the SOTU into his most effective campaign stop yet.
*I’m constantly surprised that more people aren’t aware of the Office for Gun Violence Prevention, established by Biden in 2023.
**As always, I want to remind you that I take a bi-partisan approach to the American presidency, but in this election, we have a candidate who wants to adhere to democratic values and process and another who promises to be a despot. They have both served in the office, where they’ve demonstrated a commitment, or lack thereof, to the Constitution, historical precedents, and the will of the people. I therefore take, as do Kevin and the vast majority of American historians, a pro-Biden approach–which is less about him and more about the American Experiment. And if you’re dissatisfied with both, the answer is not sitting this one out or voting against “the machine.” If you want better options, vote and then hold elected officials accountable.
ON A RELATED NOTE
I’m no political strategist, but Biden should hire me–or at least cite my work! A fortnight after I held an event about fictional presidents for “How Should a President Be,” and a day after I posted a summary of the event, the president spoke to reel presidents.
But seriously, he should replace Jon Meacham. Two excellent reads on that subject:
Can America’s Problems Be Solved by a President Who Loves Jon Meacham?
Spare Me the Joe Biden-Jon Meacham Bromance
ON A SOMEWHAT RELATED NOTE
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
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I have been begging (in my mind and to my spouse) for Biden to tap into some “Truman in ‘48” energy and it feels like he hit that in the SOTU.