Second Terms II: No Hex Required
Correlation without causation is my least favorite 'ation.
ON A PRESIDENTIAL HIGH NOTE
Nobody: Can you name and describe a Marty VB strain of weed?
Me: Of course.
Little Magician Kush: This surprisingly potent strain from the Empire State will have you seeing Free Soil visions. Expect a euphoric burst of non-committal centrism and an affinity for elegant muttonchops. Effects include a silver tongue for political maneuvering and confusing use of Dutchlish. May cause nationwide economic panic, an irresistible urge to found obscure political parties, and a tendency to outsource your social life to your daughter-in-law. Best enjoyed while dodging responsibility for your predecessor's policies. Warning: May enhance satisfaction upon leaving the presidency.
ON A RELATED NOTE
Mutton chop enthusiasts, rejoice! I'll be in conversation with Martin Van Buren papers editor James Bradley about his new book on the little Dutch boi.
December 11th, 6pm, FDR Presidential Library & Museum and/or on the flip side, aka C-SPAN.
ON A SOMEWHAT RELATED NOTE
In the arguably first real episode of "The Duncan & Coe History Show," Mike and I divulge our favorite history rabbit holes on Al Gore's Internet—and asked for yours at the end of the episode. Our little lo-fi experiment posted last night and I woke up to a gift from @catshavenolord.bsky.social: A soldier in the Truman Library archives. I begrudgingly accept that this mustache is not a pipe cleaner—I recreated it with a pipe cleaner and stuffie. 10/10 procrastination! Send your favorite rabbit holes along too—and subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts—Apple, Spotify, etc.
For the next four weeks, I'll be looking at presidential history’s ultimate "I told you so": the second term.
Second Terms II: No Hex Required
The "second-term curse" looms over American politics like a specter of bureaucratic doom. It transforms once-triumphant presidents into Sisyphean figures, forever pushing their agendas uphill.
My problem with the alleged curse? It appears to be an exercise in intellectual lethargy. Yes, the approval ratings from Truman to Obama chart a descent worthy of Dante, but correlation is not causation—a fact seemingly lost in the miasma of political punditry.
Where’s the exhaustive study? Only anecdotes exists, the reddest of red flags in presidential history. That usually means the concept is loosely tethered to political reality. It’s simply a convenient narrative, a sort of bedtime story for disillusioned voters.
It would make for an interesting case study in linguistic drift: Policy stumbles, whispers of scandal, or even mortality's untimely intrusion get subsumed under this catch-all of political misfortune. Second-term achievements, however, are treated like quantum particles: observed fleetingly, then vanishing into the ether.
Presidential historians and the media often latch onto this convenient narrative, but it explains away the complexities. Here are a few I’ve noticed:
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